willhappen
Foresight rating · Brier 2.0

Who actually calls it?

We rate every wallet on the HIP-4 tape by how calibrated its forecasts were — not by how much it made. Scores are recomputable from the public tape. Open any wallet's profile, pull the receipt behind its rating, and check the math yourself.

#ForecasterRatingn_effΔ week
10xa6fa…4f8aTop 1%913592.5new
20x44d4…335fTop 1%84177.2new
30x1e2f…0008Top 1%83664.7new
40x3fa9…e4e0Top 1%827203.7new
50xfda8…5b0bTop 1%81961.3new
60xf957…4ef0Top 2%79997.8new
70xed93…4f75Top 2%79948.8new
80xf6e5…c57fTop 2%77742.2new
90xc369…208dTop 2%737478.3new
100xd3d5…b153Top 3%709171.1new
110xd1f7…d62dTop 3%68122.5new
120x7177…c621Top 4%658243.6new
130x24b3…7aeaTop 4%65828.2new
140xb428…7e24Top 4%65542.5new
150x78ce…86ceTop 4%643104.2new
160x271d…538cTop 5%63130.9new
170xd053…b0b3Top 5%630308.1new
180x6ca1…27e0Top 5%62851.6new
190xff22…91bfTop 5%62348.7new
200xc919…712bTop 6%61516.9new
210x12e6…2c24Top 6%61320.2new
220xcb55…313eTop 6%60928.1new
230xf00e…d227Top 7%60813.8new
240x68f3…ff14Top 7%60723.7new
250x259b…15b3Top 7%60715.3new
260xb315…7893Top 8%603603.7new
270x6867…09ffTop 8%60240.8new
280x7494…6819Top 8%60123.7new
290x572a…d475Top 9%59627.5new
300xaddc…ff54Top 9%591138.7new
310x152a…4770Top 9%59045.4new
320xba40…f626Top 9%588130.8new
330x8319…fb21Top 10%58512.7new
340xe91e…64b7Top 10%58281.1new
350x7b48…43a3Top 10%58224.5new
360x50fa…4579Top 11%57919.5new
370x4f5d…d668Top 11%57914.4new
380xaaa9…bbe4Top 11%57511.4new
390xb85c…b7b7Top 12%57114.1new
400x9551…217fTop 12%56544.3new
410x061d…cbf0Top 12%56419.8new
420x6a50…376aTop 12%55420.1new
430x2173…4cf2Top 13%55312.2new
440x9591…c10aTop 13%54817.0new
450xf478…cf93Top 13%54711.7new
460x434c…c074Top 14%54110.3new
470xb9e7…db7fTop 14%53528.7new
480x215d…f80aTop 14%53324.8new
490x7a4f…85c4Top 15%53210.9new
500x599a…6502Top 15%53010.7new
510x9f06…bb5dTop 15%52912.5new
520x9458…797dTop 16%52710.7new
530x4084…c6bbTop 16%526222.8new
540xa6e8…1331Top 16%52319.8new
550xb2a2…dd0dTop 16%52119.1new
560x5740…a9daTop 17%52016.6new
570x2c3b…6c4fTop 17%51750.4new
580x4496…41c7Top 17%51475.5new
590x4bbd…a8fcTop 18%51310.3new
600x4558…90b6Top 18%50315.2new
610xfc0a…0271Top 18%50221.1new
620x0e7d…3fe9Top 19%4981393.4new
630x37b3…ca27Top 19%49810.4new
640x549d…9c2cTop 19%494183.2new
650x5fdb…c3ddTop 19%49411.1new
660x0034…db98Top 20%49116.4new
670x6cd5…1968Top 20%49116.3new
680xe094…e08dTop 20%48915.5new
690xfff7…4c42Top 21%48827.6new
700xafd8…783bTop 21%48727.3new
710x2ac7…2b80Top 21%48644.2new
720xb008…ac8bTop 22%48510.5new
730x7079…f2d2Top 22%48112.0new
740x2e46…2c1dTop 22%48017.1new
750xac03…8037Top 22%47618.2new
760x74df…bc30Top 23%47437.1new
770xe778…5502Top 23%47017.4new
780x74a7…fe91Top 23%47011.1new
790x0116…ec19Top 24%46915.2new
800x469e…58a5Top 24%46810.9new
810x291e…e995Top 25%466638.9new
820x52a7…c7b0Top 25%46614.5new
830x0f14…036cTop 25%46529.4new
840xa83a…d4eaTop 25%46525.2new
850xf393…3924Top 26%46463.6new
860x79bd…1af2Top 26%46412.0new
870x0701…8a81Top 26%46217.2new
880xcb1c…3804Top 26%45810.7new
890x13d2…76c9Top 27%45720.0new
900x84fd…24a8Top 27%45615.8new
910xd0bf…620cTop 27%45412.7new
920xc421…e079Top 28%452122.8new
930xb700…2010Top 28%45230.2new
940x4838…5a4dTop 28%45210.4new
950xca21…10e1Top 29%44827.7new
960xdbac…cf7aTop 29%44610.9new
970x3dac…1f8cTop 29%44510.2new
980xbac4…7823Top 29%44415.5new
990xe811…7e7fTop 30%44310.7new
1000x2af4…3c74Top 30%44111.8new

330 eligible wallets · rating = 1000·max(0, 1 − Brier/0.25), shrunk to the field · Δ vs. last rotation.