Spain
100% +79 pp
Recorded live · Hyperliquid HIP-4 · 2026-07-11 → 2026-07-24
The 2026 World Cup,
priced by the crowd.
Every trade on the tournament’s on-chain markets, captured tick by tick — the odds the money actually agreed on, not a pundit’s guess.
$42.3Mmatched volume
533,030real trades
4,897wallets
126markets
Who lifts the trophy
The championship board
Spain led the field at 100% — the market’s running verdict on the four semifinalists, priced in real money.
Argentina
9% −9 pp
France
4% −34 pp
England
3% −12 pp
Last four
The semifinals, head to head
2026-07-14$1.9M traded
France59%
Spain41%
2026-07-15$67k traded
England55%
Argentina45%
Tournament flow
Volume, day by day
$6.3M
07-11
72,016
$6.1M
07-12
60,352
$2.6M
07-13
36,488
$4.9M
07-14
36,358
$3.1M
07-15
37,774
$2.0M
07-16
31,882
$2.5M
07-17
54,794
$4.7M
07-18
37,332
$5.5M
07-19
36,252
$1.5M
07-20
36,584
$585k
07-21
17,550
$1.3M
07-22
35,796
$956k
07-23
27,596
$567k
07-24
12,256
Under the hood
Capture quality
This is not a scrape. willhappen’s recorder holds a live socket to the venue and writes every tick to disk — deduped, timestamped to the nanosecond, and reconciled against the book.
97.7%two-sided quotes on the tracked markets
0.16 ppmedian bid-ask spread ($0.01 = 1 pp)
224,374order-book snapshots captured
61,981socket reconnects survived without a gap