willhappen
Foresight rating · Brier 2.0

Who actually calls it?

We rate every wallet on the HIP-4 tape by how calibrated its forecasts were — not by how much it made. Scores are recomputable from the public tape. Open any wallet's profile, pull the receipt behind its rating, and check the math yourself.

#ForecasterRatingn_effΔ week
10xa6fa…4f8aTop 1%913592.5new
20x44d4…335fTop 1%84177.2new
30x1e2f…0008Top 1%83664.7new
40x3fa9…e4e0Top 1%827203.7new
50xfda8…5b0bTop 1%81961.3new
60xf957…4ef0Top 2%79997.8new
90xc369…208dTop 2%737478.3new
100xd3d5…b153Top 3%709171.1new
120x7177…c621Top 4%658243.6new
150x78ce…86ceTop 4%643104.2new
170xd053…b0b3Top 5%630308.1new
180x6ca1…27e0Top 5%62851.6new
260xb315…7893Top 8%603603.7new
300xaddc…ff54Top 9%591138.7new
320xba40…f626Top 9%588130.8new
340xe91e…64b7Top 10%58281.1new
530x4084…c6bbTop 16%526222.8new
570x2c3b…6c4fTop 17%51750.4new
580x4496…41c7Top 17%51475.5new
620x0e7d…3fe9Top 19%4981393.4new
640x549d…9c2cTop 19%494183.2new
810x291e…e995Top 25%466638.9new
850xf393…3924Top 26%46463.6new
920xc421…e079Top 28%452122.8new
1060x1e53…feacTop 32%435108.5new
1080xd9ee…cd0cTop 33%43356.3new
1200x5af6…0134Top 36%424133.7new
1390xcb1f…2956Top 43%40256.3new
1570x41d6…0f7eTop 48%392151.2new
1630x6426…1031Top 50%38066.5new
1720xf315…ae7636753.3new
1760x60b0…991e364305.0new
1770x1752…101b36373.1new
1950x9a3f…3a4834262.9new
2000x9e5c…56c7339174.2new
2100xd3a8…bff93312556.2new
2210xf0bb…d4a732350.4new
2520x5651…efb328768.6new
2610xbd3b…96cf27462.1new
2680x44b6…e8dc26671.1new
2800x0144…75ec24754.7new
2970xd393…7f6f19473.9new
3100xdcdb…6da8106129.8new
3120x0568…7fe09792.5new
3130x1bc5…b7fc9782.5new
3150xd9f1…32719498.2new
3180xc0c5…996f7751.7new
3190xd25c…c2436751.2new
3260x9616…f0372186.0new
3270x3a6d…24a31362.1new
3280x851a…021f1064.7new

51 eligible wallets · rating = 1000·max(0, 1 − Brier/0.25), shrunk to the field · Δ vs. last rotation.