willhappen
Foresight rating · Brier 2.0

Who actually calls it?

We rate every wallet on the HIP-4 tape by how calibrated its forecasts were — not by how much it made. Scores are recomputable from the public tape. Open any wallet's profile, pull the receipt behind its rating, and check the math yourself.

#ForecasterRatingn_effΔ week
10xa6fa…4f8aTop 1%913592.5new
20x44d4…335fTop 1%84177.2new
30x1e2f…0008Top 1%83664.7new
40x3fa9…e4e0Top 1%827203.7new
50xfda8…5b0bTop 1%81961.3new
60xf957…4ef0Top 2%79997.8new
70xed93…4f75Top 2%79948.8new
80xf6e5…c57fTop 2%77742.2new
90xc369…208dTop 2%737478.3new
100xd3d5…b153Top 3%709171.1new
120x7177…c621Top 4%658243.6new
130x24b3…7aeaTop 4%65828.2new
140xb428…7e24Top 4%65542.5new
150x78ce…86ceTop 4%643104.2new
160x271d…538cTop 5%63130.9new
170xd053…b0b3Top 5%630308.1new
180x6ca1…27e0Top 5%62851.6new
190xff22…91bfTop 5%62348.7new
220xcb55…313eTop 6%60928.1new
260xb315…7893Top 8%603603.7new
270x6867…09ffTop 8%60240.8new
290x572a…d475Top 9%59627.5new
300xaddc…ff54Top 9%591138.7new
310x152a…4770Top 9%59045.4new
320xba40…f626Top 9%588130.8new
340xe91e…64b7Top 10%58281.1new
400x9551…217fTop 12%56544.3new
470xb9e7…db7fTop 14%53528.7new
530x4084…c6bbTop 16%526222.8new
570x2c3b…6c4fTop 17%51750.4new
580x4496…41c7Top 17%51475.5new
620x0e7d…3fe9Top 19%4981393.4new
640x549d…9c2cTop 19%494183.2new
690xfff7…4c42Top 21%48827.6new
700xafd8…783bTop 21%48727.3new
710x2ac7…2b80Top 21%48644.2new
760x74df…bc30Top 23%47437.1new
810x291e…e995Top 25%466638.9new
830x0f14…036cTop 25%46529.4new
840xa83a…d4eaTop 25%46525.2new
850xf393…3924Top 26%46463.6new
920xc421…e079Top 28%452122.8new
930xb700…2010Top 28%45230.2new
950xca21…10e1Top 29%44827.7new
1060x1e53…feacTop 32%435108.5new
1070x28d5…cf54Top 32%43536.2new
1080xd9ee…cd0cTop 33%43356.3new
1130xf3fe…30bbTop 35%42629.9new
1200x5af6…0134Top 36%424133.7new
1290xc8b5…cd85Top 39%41647.3new
1390xcb1f…2956Top 43%40256.3new
1400x87f6…a2ddTop 43%40229.8new
1450x4967…9aa2Top 45%39932.5new
1570x41d6…0f7eTop 48%392151.2new
1600x15cc…d17fTop 48%39047.6new
1610x8ba9…f050Top 49%38646.6new
1630x6426…1031Top 50%38066.5new
1670xbc38…37b037833.5new
1700x4735…a0c336930.1new
1720xf315…ae7636753.3new
1760x60b0…991e364305.0new
1770x1752…101b36373.1new
1880xa129…c5e135028.4new
1910x5677…8e3534636.9new
1950x9a3f…3a4834262.9new
2000x9e5c…56c7339174.2new
2030x27e5…3cdc33748.1new
2090x8e0d…ded333246.9new
2100xd3a8…bff93312556.2new
2110x06b4…3ba933139.2new
2120x3bf3…685833130.4new
2200x0c61…661b32531.7new
2210xf0bb…d4a732350.4new
2260xf429…469a31737.3new
2290xb01f…eec331632.5new
2320xc7db…898b31234.8new
2360x8133…619430430.8new
2390x3217…c9be30127.3new
2410xb181…fb4030027.3new
2490x02c3…50cb29238.8new
2520x5651…efb328768.6new
2610xbd3b…96cf27462.1new
2680x44b6…e8dc26671.1new
2800x0144…75ec24754.7new
2870x1799…a1fe22939.7new
2880x3b36…416922640.1new
2940x77a2…6ad620049.3new
2970xd393…7f6f19473.9new
3000x3d7a…5c3617928.1new
3040x66fd…c02315931.8new
3070x199a…679513726.7new
3100xdcdb…6da8106129.8new
3120x0568…7fe09792.5new
3130x1bc5…b7fc9782.5new
3140xaada…8b8f9626.5new
3150xd9f1…32719498.2new
3160xc0f3…65ce9334.0new
3180xc0c5…996f7751.7new
3190xd25c…c2436751.2new
3220x07cb…d6845537.5new

106 eligible wallets · rating = 1000·max(0, 1 − Brier/0.25), shrunk to the field · Δ vs. last rotation.