willhappen
Foresight rating · Brier 2.0

Who actually calls it?

We rate every wallet on the HIP-4 tape by how calibrated its forecasts were — not by how much it made. Scores are recomputable from the public tape. Open any wallet's profile, pull the receipt behind its rating, and check the math yourself.

#ForecasterRatingn_effΔ week
10xa6fa…4f8aTop 1%896306.3new
20x3fa9…e4e0Top 1%809152.9new
40xf957…4ef0Top 1%77577.6new
60x9e5c…56c7Top 2%75886.5new
100xc369…208dTop 3%693251.1new
110xb315…7893Top 4%680358.2new
140xd3d5…b153Top 5%651131.6new
150x4084…c6bbTop 5%65066.1new
160xe91e…64b7Top 6%63660.9new
190x6ca1…27e0Top 7%62751.6new
210xd053…b0b3Top 7%625285.6new
230x78ce…86ceTop 9%60952.4new
280x7177…c621Top 10%601181.5new
330xaddc…ff54Top 12%591138.7new
340xba40…f626Top 12%587130.8new
370x1e53…feacTop 13%56998.0new
400x549d…9c2cTop 15%546110.7new
670x291e…e995Top 25%466638.9new
700xf393…3924Top 26%46363.6new
820x0e7d…3fe9Top 31%441856.3new
890xd9ee…cd0cTop 33%43256.3new
910xc421…e079Top 34%42961.1new
1170x5af6…0134Top 44%404102.5new
1190xcb1f…2956Top 44%40156.3new
1470xf315…ae7636653.3new
1510x60b0…991e364305.0new
1730x1752…101b33678.8new
1790xd3a8…bff93312555.3new
2120xbd3b…96cf27362.1new
2290x0144…75ec24654.7new
2470xd393…7f6f16853.7new
2540x0568…7fe011259.3new
2570xdcdb…6da892118.1new
2660x3a6d…24a31262.1new
2670x851a…021f964.7new

35 eligible wallets · rating = 1000·max(0, 1 − Brier/0.25), shrunk to the field · Δ vs. last rotation.