willhappen
Foresight rating · Brier 2.0

Who actually calls it?

We rate every wallet on the HIP-4 tape by how calibrated its forecasts were — not by how much it made. Scores are recomputable from the public tape. Open any wallet's profile, pull the receipt behind its rating, and check the math yourself.

#ForecasterRatingn_effΔ week
10xa6fa…4f8aTop 1%896306.3new
20x3fa9…e4e0Top 1%809152.9new
30x44d4…335fTop 1%78348.6new
40xf957…4ef0Top 1%77577.6new
50x1e2f…0008Top 1%76237.9new
60x9e5c…56c7Top 2%75886.5new
70xfda8…5b0bTop 2%75434.3new
80xed93…4f75Top 3%72329.6new
90xd0bf…620cTop 3%71735.1new
100xc369…208dTop 3%693251.1new
110xb315…7893Top 4%680358.2new
120xd1f7…d62dTop 4%67822.5new
130xb428…7e24Top 4%65342.5new
140xd3d5…b153Top 5%651131.6new
150x4084…c6bbTop 5%65066.1new
160xe91e…64b7Top 6%63660.9new
170xf6e5…c57fTop 6%63217.4new
180x271d…538cTop 6%63026.4new
190x6ca1…27e0Top 7%62751.6new
200x24b3…7aeaTop 7%62624.0new
210xd053…b0b3Top 7%625285.6new
220xc919…712bTop 8%61216.9new
230x78ce…86ceTop 9%60952.4new
240x88c8…c104Top 9%60915.1new
250xf00e…d227Top 9%60513.8new
260x68f3…ff14Top 10%60423.7new
270x259b…15b3Top 10%60415.3new
280x7177…c621Top 10%601181.5new
290x12e6…2c24Top 10%60018.8new
300x7494…6819Top 11%59823.7new
310x6867…09ffTop 11%59539.9new
320x572a…d475Top 12%59427.5new
330xaddc…ff54Top 12%591138.7new
340xba40…f626Top 12%587130.8new
350x8319…fb21Top 13%58012.6new
360x50fa…4579Top 13%57719.5new
370x1e53…feacTop 13%56998.0new
380x152a…4770Top 14%56239.8new
390x2173…4cf2Top 14%55012.2new
400x549d…9c2cTop 15%546110.7new
410xf478…cf93Top 15%53811.1new
420x434c…c074Top 15%53710.3new
430xb9e7…db7fTop 16%53328.7new
440x215d…f80aTop 16%53124.8new
450xfc0a…0271Top 16%53020.8new
460xff22…91bfTop 17%52842.1new
470x7a4f…85c4Top 17%52810.9new
480x599a…6502Top 18%52610.7new
490x9458…797dTop 18%52410.7new
500xa6e8…1331Top 18%52119.8new
510xb2a2…dd0dTop 19%51819.1new
520x5740…a9daTop 19%51716.6new
530x9551…217fTop 19%51629.8new
540xb85c…b7b7Top 20%51011.5new
550x4558…90b6Top 20%50015.2new
560x133a…70b3Top 21%49714.6new
570x0034…db98Top 21%48816.4new
580x6cd5…1968Top 21%48816.3new
590xfff7…4c42Top 22%48627.6new
600xb008…ac8bTop 22%48210.5new
610x2ac7…2b80Top 22%48143.2new
620x7079…f2d2Top 23%47712.0new
630xe094…e08dTop 23%47614.3new
640xb700…2010Top 24%47527.3new
650xac03…8037Top 24%47418.2new
660x74a7…fe91Top 24%46711.1new
670x291e…e995Top 25%466638.9new
680x5f45…71c1Top 25%46414.5new
690x469e…58a5Top 25%46410.9new
700xf393…3924Top 26%46363.6new
710x0f14…036cTop 26%46329.4new
720x52a7…c7b0Top 26%46314.5new
730x477d…185cTop 27%46110.3new
740x0116…ec19Top 27%45913.9new
750x2e46…2c1dTop 28%45715.1new
760x13d2…76c9Top 28%45420.0new
770x84fd…24a8Top 28%45315.8new
780x3b36…4169Top 29%45015.5new
790xca21…10e1Top 29%44527.7new
800x8c7e…ccdbTop 30%44314.9new
810xdbac…cf7aTop 30%44310.9new
820x0e7d…3fe9Top 31%441856.3new
830xbac4…7823Top 31%44115.5new
840x3dac…1f8cTop 31%44110.2new
850xe811…7e7fTop 31%43910.7new
860x2af4…3c74Top 32%43811.8new
870x2c07…608fTop 32%43622.8new
880x2f76…f6a0Top 32%43410.3new
890xd9ee…cd0cTop 33%43256.3new
900x76a8…0dacTop 33%43211.6new
910xc421…e079Top 34%42961.1new
920xafd8…783bTop 34%42919.9new
930xbd25…34e3Top 34%42617.2new
940xf3fe…30bbTop 35%42429.9new
950x5c68…537dTop 35%42417.6new
960x9b83…6c6cTop 35%42410.5new
970xe492…4ef9Top 37%42319.0new
980xbf2a…d457Top 37%42318.6new
990xf94d…cbf3Top 37%42318.5new
1000xfd86…2bf3Top 37%42318.0new

269 eligible wallets · rating = 1000·max(0, 1 − Brier/0.25), shrunk to the field · Δ vs. last rotation.