willhappen
Foresight rating · Brier 2.0

Who actually calls it?

We rate every wallet on the HIP-4 tape by how calibrated its forecasts were — not by how much it made. Scores are recomputable from the public tape. Open any wallet's profile, pull the receipt behind its rating, and check the math yourself.

#ForecasterRatingn_effΔ week
10xa6fa…4f8aTop 1%896306.3new
20x3fa9…e4e0Top 1%809152.9new
30x44d4…335fTop 1%78348.6new
40xf957…4ef0Top 1%77577.6new
50x1e2f…0008Top 1%76237.9new
60x9e5c…56c7Top 2%75886.5new
70xfda8…5b0bTop 2%75434.3new
80xed93…4f75Top 3%72329.6new
90xd0bf…620cTop 3%71735.1new
100xc369…208dTop 3%693251.1new
110xb315…7893Top 4%680358.2new
130xb428…7e24Top 4%65342.5new
140xd3d5…b153Top 5%651131.6new
150x4084…c6bbTop 5%65066.1new
160xe91e…64b7Top 6%63660.9new
180x271d…538cTop 6%63026.4new
190x6ca1…27e0Top 7%62751.6new
210xd053…b0b3Top 7%625285.6new
230x78ce…86ceTop 9%60952.4new
280x7177…c621Top 10%601181.5new
310x6867…09ffTop 11%59539.9new
320x572a…d475Top 12%59427.5new
330xaddc…ff54Top 12%591138.7new
340xba40…f626Top 12%587130.8new
370x1e53…feacTop 13%56998.0new
380x152a…4770Top 14%56239.8new
400x549d…9c2cTop 15%546110.7new
430xb9e7…db7fTop 16%53328.7new
460xff22…91bfTop 17%52842.1new
530x9551…217fTop 19%51629.8new
590xfff7…4c42Top 22%48627.6new
610x2ac7…2b80Top 22%48143.2new
640xb700…2010Top 24%47527.3new
670x291e…e995Top 25%466638.9new
700xf393…3924Top 26%46363.6new
710x0f14…036cTop 26%46329.4new
790xca21…10e1Top 29%44527.7new
820x0e7d…3fe9Top 31%441856.3new
890xd9ee…cd0cTop 33%43256.3new
910xc421…e079Top 34%42961.1new
940xf3fe…30bbTop 35%42429.9new
1070xc8b5…cd85Top 40%41547.3new
1170x5af6…0134Top 44%404102.5new
1190xcb1f…2956Top 44%40156.3new
1220x4496…41c7Top 46%39536.3new
1320x15cc…d17fTop 49%38847.6new
1340x8ba9…f050Top 50%38640.7new
1410xbc38…37b037432.9new
1460x4735…a0c336730.1new
1470xf315…ae7636653.3new
1510x60b0…991e364305.0new
1540x1bc5…b7fc36126.7new
1610x9a3f…3a4835128.1new
1690x27e5…3cdc34237.9new
1730x1752…101b33678.8new
1790xd3a8…bff93312555.3new
1820x3bf3…685832930.4new
1830x6426…103132841.1new
1860x0c61…661b32331.7new
1870x4967…9aa232327.7new
1910xf429…469a31537.3new
1970x3217…c9be29927.3new
1980x8e0d…ded329736.3new
2070xb01f…eec328526.4new
2090xf0bb…d4a728445.8new
2120xbd3b…96cf27362.1new
2160x5651…efb326342.8new
2220x02c3…50cb25633.8new
2230x1799…a1fe25625.2new
2260x44b6…e8dc25344.2new
2290x0144…75ec24654.7new
2370x77a2…6ad620440.0new
2470xd393…7f6f16853.7new
2500xd25c…c24315531.0new
2520xd9f1…327113528.6new
2540x0568…7fe011259.3new
2550xc0c5…996f9936.8new
2570xdcdb…6da892118.1new
2590x9616…f0378138.1new
2610xc0f3…65ce5426.5new
2620x07cb…d6845337.5new
2650xbfc2…80203528.2new
2660x3a6d…24a31262.1new
2670x851a…021f964.7new
2680xf43a…8872025.4new

85 eligible wallets · rating = 1000·max(0, 1 − Brier/0.25), shrunk to the field · Δ vs. last rotation.